Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United States of America.
Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1564 – 12204 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.7 – 4.8 |
| Rate of spread | 0.00093 – 0.42 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – 750 |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.1 – 0.96 |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| State | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 2 – 40 | Increasing | 1 – 2.7 | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Alaska | 2 – 46 | Increasing | 1.2 – 5.5 | 0.18 – Cases decreasing |
| Arizona | 11 – 114 | Increasing | 1.2 – 4.5 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Arkansas | 14 – 137 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.9 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| California | 100 – 787 | Increasing | 1 – 2.5 | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Colorado | 28 – 274 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.5 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Connecticut | 9 – 106 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2.3 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Delaware | 1 – 30 | Increasing | 0.9 – 2.8 | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Florida | 65 – 462 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.7 | 2.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Georgia | 29 – 278 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.8 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Hawaii | 3 – 52 | Increasing | 1.2 – 4.4 | 0.22 – Cases decreasing |
| Idaho | 2 – 47 | Increasing | 1.2 – 4.4 | 0.27 – Cases decreasing |
| Illinois | 107 – 818 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.8 | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Indiana | 24 – 199 | Increasing | 1.4 – 4.6 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Iowa | 6 – 87 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4.2 | 0.81 – Cases decreasing |
| Kansas | 2 – 43 | Increasing | 1 – 3.2 | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Kentucky | 3 – 55 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.6 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Louisiana | 90 – 733 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.3 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Maine | 5 – 76 | Increasing | 1 – 2.9 | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Maryland | 15 – 156 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.2 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Massachusetts | 44 – 345 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3 | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Michigan | 97 – 732 | Increasing | 1.2 – 4.1 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Minnesota | 7 – 104 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.7 | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Mississippi | 23 – 207 | Increasing | 1.4 – 5 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Missouri | 7 – 99 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4.4 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Montana | 3 – 54 | Increasing | 1.2 – 5 | 0.22 – Cases decreasing |
| Nebraska | 3 – 54 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.4 | 0.31 – Cases decreasing |
| Nevada | 8 – 100 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3 | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| New Hampshire | 3 – 48 | Increasing | 1 – 3 | 0.74 – Cases decreasing |
| New Jersey | 250 – 1740 | Increasing | 1.4 – 4.2 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| New Mexico | 4 – 63 | Increasing | 1 – 3.2 | 0.64 – Cases decreasing |
| New York | 1479 – 11283 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.8 | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| North Carolina | 15 – 152 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.4 | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| North Dakota | 2 – 55 | Increasing | 1.2 – 5.8 | 0.15 – Cases decreasing |
| Ohio | 35 – 312 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.9 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Oklahoma | 4 – 61 | Increasing | 1 – 3.2 | 0.24 – Cases decreasing |
| Oregon | 13 – 159 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.3 | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Pennsylvania | 38 – 327 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.2 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Rhode Island | 4 – 67 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.2 | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| South Carolina | 7 – 92 | Increasing | 1.1 – 3.1 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| South Dakota | 2 – 44 | Increasing | 1.3 – 5.9 | 0.15 – Cases decreasing |
| Tennessee | 44 – 381 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4.2 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Texas | 13 – 138 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.9 | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Utah | 14 – 138 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.8 | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Vermont | 7 – 86 | Increasing | 1.3 – 4.7 | 0.37 – Cases decreasing |
| Virginia | 22 – 195 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3.5 | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Washington | 67 – 569 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 2.1 | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Wisconsin | 32 – 287 | Increasing | 1.2 – 3.6 | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Wyoming | 1 – 34 | Likely increasing | 0.9 – 3.5 | 0.19 – Cases decreasing |
Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 40 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.56 – 0.38 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.41 – 0.84 |
Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 46 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 5.5 |
| Rate of spread | -2.6 – 3.9 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.18 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.33 – 0.77 |
Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 11 – 114 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 4.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.096 – 0.41 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.94 |
Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 14 – 137 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.15 – 0.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.91 |
Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 100 – 787 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.083 – 0.21 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.93 |
Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 28 – 274 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.16 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.85 |
Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 9 – 106 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.93 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.34 – 0.72 |
Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 30 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.42 – 1.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.22 – 0.8 |
Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 65 – 462 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.031 – 0.26 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.14 – 0.97 |
Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 29 – 278 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.072 – 0.28 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.96 |
Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 52 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 4.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.19 – 3.1 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.22 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.87 |
Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 47 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 4.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.75 – 2.6 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.27 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.27 – 0.87 |
Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 107 – 818 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.07 – 0.36 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.92 |
Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 24 – 199 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 4.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.067 – 0.44 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.94 |
Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 6 – 87 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.2 – 0.86 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.81 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.92 |
Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 43 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.14 – 1.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.81 |
Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 55 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.24 – 0.49 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.87 |
Table 19: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 41: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 42: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 90 – 733 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.061 – 0.28 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.91 |
Table 20: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 43: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 44: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 76 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.16 – 0.33 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.23 – 0.8 |
Table 21: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 45: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 46: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 15 – 156 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.15 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.95 |
Table 22: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 47: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 48: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 44 – 345 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.15 – 0.36 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.95 |
Table 23: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 49: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 50: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 97 – 732 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 4.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.13 – 0.48 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.95 |
Table 24: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 51: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 52: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 104 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.7 |
| Rate of spread | -0.14 – 0.3 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.88 |
Table 25: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 53: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 54: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 23 – 207 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.093 – 0.49 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.97 |
Table 26: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 55: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 56: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 99 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.3 – 0.5 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.45 – 0.95 |
Table 27: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 57: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 58: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 54 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 5 |
| Rate of spread | -1.8 – 3.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.22 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.33 – 0.92 |
Table 28: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 59: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 60: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 54 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.79 – 2.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.31 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.32 – 0.84 |
Table 29: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 61: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 62: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 8 – 100 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.14 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.88 |
Table 30: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 63: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 64: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 3 – 48 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.23 – 0.94 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.74 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.76 |
Table 31: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 65: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 66: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 250 – 1740 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 4.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.12 – 0.47 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.94 |
Table 32: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 67: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 68: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 4 – 63 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.89 – 1.1 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.64 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.67 |
Table 33: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 69: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 70: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1479 – 11283 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.071 – 0.44 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.98 |
Table 34: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 71: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 72: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 15 – 152 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.21 – 0.39 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.22 – 0.95 |
Table 35: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 73: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 74: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 55 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 5.8 |
| Rate of spread | -2.7 – 4.6 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.15 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.34 – 0.82 |
Table 36: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 75: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 76: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 35 – 312 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.041 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.96 |
Table 37: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 77: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 78: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 4 – 61 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.34 – 2.9 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.24 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.76 |
Table 38: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 79: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 80: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 13 – 159 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.76 – 0.5 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.32 – 0.85 |
Table 39: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 81: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 82: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 38 – 327 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.069 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.98 |
Table 40: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 83: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 84: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 4 – 67 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.17 – 0.4 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.7 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.9 |
Table 41: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 85: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 86: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 92 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.12 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.91 |
Table 42: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 87: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 88: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 2 – 44 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 5.9 |
| Rate of spread | -3.9 – 4.5 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.15 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.36 – 0.8 |
Table 43: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 89: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 90: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 44 – 381 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.079 – 0.45 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.97 |
Table 44: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 91: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 92: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 13 – 138 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.9 |
| Rate of spread | -0.39 – 0.36 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.24 – 0.96 |
Table 45: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 93: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 94: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 14 – 138 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.18 – 0.47 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.18 – 0.85 |
Table 46: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 95: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 96: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 7 – 86 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 4.7 |
| Rate of spread | -1.8 – 1.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.37 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.8 |
Table 47: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 97: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 98: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 22 – 195 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.073 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.92 |
Table 48: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 99: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 100: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 67 – 569 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 2.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.16 – 0.24 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.9 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.83 |
Table 49: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 101: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 102: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 32 – 287 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 3.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.052 – 0.34 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.1 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.16 – 0.95 |
Table 50: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 103: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 104: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1 – 34 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Likely increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 0.9 – 3.5 |
| Rate of spread | -3.3 – 3.7 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.19 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.33 – 0.69 |
Table 51: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Figure 105: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Figure 106: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.
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